[insert your own name
and postal address]

[insert date]

Dear [insert MP’s title and surname]

Ref: The failings of the proposed ‘Generational SalesBan’

I am writing to you as one of your constituents, as I have major concerns about the phased ‘generational sales ban’ that has been proposed as part of the Government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill.

I believe the Bill is inadequately considered and fails to differentiate between the adoption of cigarette smoking and vaping by young people and the smoking of cigars and pipe tobacco by a smaller, more mature cross section of society.

If implemented, this one-size-fits-all policy will have unintended yet serious consequences, which I do not believe have been properly understood. I have outlined my concerns and recommendations below.

1. The DHSC’s Impact Assessment is woefully inadequate
The previous Government’s Impact Assessment is heavily flawed and has significant shortcomings, as follows:

1.1. The blanket approach is inappropriate for evidence-based policy making
The Department of Health & Social Care (DHSC)’s Impact Assessment demonstrates an almost total lack of consideration of a number of tobacco products that will be covered by the proposed generational smoking ban – namely, cigarillos, cigars, pipe tobacco and snuff. Referred to collectively as Other Tobacco Products (OTPs), these products accounted for a 1.2% share of the UK Tobacco market as of 2022 (Source: HMRC Tobacco Clearance Data).

Instead, the Impact Assessment frequently refers to “tobacco products” as a homogenous group, and this blanket approach neglects to consider and acknowledge that OTPs have vastly different usage patterns, market dynamics, and consumer demographics compared to cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco, the consequences of which are critical for a proper assessment of the proposed policy as it applies to OTPs. In making the case for a generational sales ban, the Impact Assessment relies in its entirety on evidence pertaining to cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco. In fact, the word “cigars” appears only once in the document, “snuff” appears twice, and “pipe tobacco” is mentioned three times, while “cigarillos” are not referenced at all.

1.2. There is no analysis and evidence for the Inclusion of OTPs
The central flaw of the Impact Assessment is its complete lack of analysis and evidence to justify the inclusion of OTPs in the proposed generational sales ban. The Impact Assessment provides no specific data or evidence demonstrating that the inclusion of OTPs will meaningfully contribute to achieving the ban’s objectives – namely, preventing youth smoking initiation, reducing tobacco addiction and improving public health outcomes. The question of the contribution of OTPs to achieving these goals has simply not been addressed. This amounts to a remarkable omission for a process designed to ensure sound policy making.

The evidence base cited in the Impact Assessment relies exclusively upon data pertaining to cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco. The data sources used, which include various government smoking and lifestyle surveys and reports, such as the ONS Adult Smoking Habits in the UK, ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, ONS General Lifestyle Survey, NHS Smoking, Drinking and Drug Use Among Young People in England, and the ONS Annual Population Survey, rely completely on survey responses related to cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco. These data sources do not include cigarillos, cigars, pipe tobacco or snuff in their survey questions due to their statistical insignificance.

As a result, the Impact Assessment generalises findings related to cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco to all tobacco products without considering the distinct nature of OTPs. This approach not only ignores the unique characteristics of OTPs in terms of their market structure, distribution networks, consumer age profile, patterns of use and addictive potential, but in doing so fails to provide a rationale for their inclusion in the generational sales ban. The Impact Assessment’s failure to justify the inclusion of OTPs in this broad policy measure exposes a lack of thorough consideration and analysis, which will lead to disproportionate and unintended consequences for the SMEs, micro businesses and their employees, which comprise the sector.

1.3. There are no demographic considerations
Another critical flaw of the Impact Assessment is its failure to consider the demographic characteristics of OTP users. According to the most recently available data, which I doubt will have changed to any material extent, 90% of cigar users are over 25 years of age and 78% are over 35. In the case of pipe tobacco, 97% of users are over 25 years of age and 94% are over 35 (Source: Omnimas Survey, 2012). The Impact Assessment, however, makes no distinction between the demographics of cigarette users and OTP users, leading to a one-size fits all policy assessment that does not fit the realities of the tobacco market.

The Impact Assessment correctly identifies youth smoking initiation as the primary driver of tobacco addiction, overall smoking prevalence and the societal consequences of cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco use. However, it provides no evidence that OTPs are contributing to youth smoking initiation. Rather, in considering the question of youth smoking initiation, the Impact Assessment’s analysis relies exclusively on data and survey evidence pertaining to cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco. Without such analysis and evidence, the inclusion of OTPs in the generational sales ban cannot have been adequately assessed.

1.4. The policy options are too limited and the model proposed is inaccurate
In its assessment of the policy options considered by the DHSC, the Impact Assessment presents the generational sales ban as a comprehensive solution to achieving the government’s public health goals of preventing youth initiation, tobacco addiction and long-term smoking. It does so by contrasting a “doing nothing” option with the proposed generation sales ban. However, the Impact Assessment does not explore alternative policy options that could specifically target the products most responsible for youth smoking initiation – namely, cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco. Similarly, the Impact Assessment does not assess the potential public health, economic and societal benefits of such a targeted approach. Rather, the Impact Assessment presents a model of the expected impacts, benefits and effect sizes that relies exclusively on data sources pertaining to cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco use, with no corresponding analysis of OTPs.

1.5 The impacts on businesses have not been adequately considered
In addition to the failure of the Impact Assessment to include OTPs with the scope of its analysis of the problem to be addressed, the policy options considered, or the modeling of the measure’s health and societal impacts, the analysis provided also demonstrates a lack of consideration of consequences of the policy for the SMEs and micro businesses that comprise the OTP sector. Instead, the Impact Assessment’s modeling of impacts on the retail sector is based solely on cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco sales, using average price, profit margin and consumption values data from convenience stores, petrol shops and supermarkets – not specialist tobacconists whose focus is often exclusively on sales of OTPs.

2. The Bill will have disastrous consequences for Specialist Tobacconists

2.1 The generational sales ban will be difficult to enforce
My local Specialist Tobacconist is already working desperately hard, trying to recover from the devastating effects of the COVID pandemic and support our local community. The burden of implementing a phased generational sales ban will fall almost entirely on the shoulders of such retailers and threatens to criminalise them for selling tobacco to adults. It will reach a point where staff at these retailers will be expected to distinguish between 36-year-olds and 37-year-olds when deciding to whom they are allowed to sell tobacco products. Every year, the ‘proof of age’ requirements will change and the only way staff will be able to ensure they are not breaking the law will be for them to ask any consumers who want to buy tobacco to present photographic ID. Furthermore, this is highly likely to drive an escalation in more threatening and intimidating behaviour towards retailers.

2.2 A distinct market sector will face economic ruin
Specialist tobacconists, a category of tobacco product retailers who are given special status in UK legislation for tobacco advertising and promotion, are heavily reliant on OTP sales, which, in the case of handmade cigars, account for approximately 70% of their revenue. These businesses are particularly vulnerable, yet the Impact Assessment does not mention them or analyse the potential consequences of a generational sales ban on their operations. The Impact Assessment also fails to differentiate between the economic effects on general retailers, who sell a wide range of products, and specialist tobacconists, who do not offer a similar range of products. In estimating the ability of general retailers to at least partially offset the loss of low margin cigarette sales through increased profits on higher margin goods and services purchased in place of tobacco, the Impact Assessment ignores entirely the almost complete reliance of specialist tobacconists on the sale of high margin OTPs for their survival as going concerns.

3. Recommendations

The one-size-fits-all approach as currently introduced is based on a wholly inadequate Impact Assessment that fails to differentiate between cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco on the one hand, and cigars, pipe tobacco and other tobacco products on the other. The policy is naïve to the realities of the tobacco sector as a whole. It will impact the freedom of choice of an older, more discerning swathe of society whilst unnecessarily destroying a valued and respected market sector.

In my view, an appropriate amendment to the Bill would be to exclude cigars, pipe tobacco, cigarillos and snuff (OTPs) on the basis that these products:

a) have not been properly and fairly considered; and

b) do not contribute to the initiation of youth smoking.

An alternative would be to raise the age of purchase for this sector of the market which would not only reflect existing consumption demographics but would remove the possibility that these products could be sold to anyone who is not a mature adult.

By making this change, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill would reflect the realities of the market and the OTP sector whilst simultaneously putting in place legislation that more accurately deals with the issue it aims to address. I would very much appreciate your support in helping to rectify the current failings of the policy, as without doing so the Bill will unfairly target the wrong market sector, and will inevitably affect small businesses within your constituency.

Yours sincerely,

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